My Murder Spree! Bracket

So I sat down last night and this morning, hmmm’d and haw’d at the bracket and after putting a lot of thought into it, I think Sorscha is probably going to win.

MyMurderSpreeGuess

Quick Summaries of my thoughts on the match-ups:

ROUND 1

Game 1: Lylyth vs Sorscha
Lylyth just will struggle with clearing the chaff that Sorscha is bringing (Warspears only have the single attack), but all Sorscha really needs to do is deliver the Juggernaut (or herself). The Juggernaut also should be able to murder the Warspears. The Carnivean could be a potential speed bump, but it isn’t horrendously difficult to hit.

Game 2: Lucent vs Feora
Lucent makes ranged lists cry. Lucent makes continuous effect lists cry. Feora is bringing both. I suspect that the Errents were a mistake (Knights would’ve been a stronger choice) and staring down both Deceleration and Purification, I doubt that Feora is going to be able to make any damage really stick to Lucent.

Game 3: Kaelyssa vs Kaya
Its a melee mobility game vs a ranged mobility game. I don’t think this is going to end well for Kaya, Kaelyssa is decent at countering general Kaya tactics (stealth, LOS blocking) and Retribution has the speed to keep up with Circle.

Game 4: Kreoss vs Gorten
Knockdown vs Knockdown Immunity! Dude spam versus 1 spray! If Kreoss can manage to finesse the Repenter into the right position, and if Gorten lets it live, its a toss up. But with Gorten being a straight counter to Kreoss and the Hammers to clean off the Risen, I don’t think that Kreoss is going to enjoy this game much at all (barring Purification into Feat).

ROUND 2

Game 5: Sorscha vs Lucent
Lucent is a fabulous anti-shooting, armored, melee brick caster. Sorscha is running melee. While I don’t think it will be that simple, I do think that Sorscha’s feat is going to enable her to win the attrition game and leave Lucent with very few options. With her ability to run around at Def18 (or 20) without much effort, I don’t think that Lucent will be able to do much to bring her down.

Game 6: Kaelyssa vs Gorten
Gorten does slow, high armor shenanigans quite well. Without a way to purge Strength of Granite, I think Kaelyssa will be hard pressed to clear the chaff before it bogs her down. Gorten will flounder a little to actually hit her, but as soon as anything gets engaged by the Risen, it’s going to get swamped in charging weapon masters.

Game 7: Lylyth vs Feora
Feora ended up with a strong ranged component that wants low defense targets, Lylyth is not that. I don’t think the Errents have the hitting power to break the Warspears (maybe on the charge) and if the Warspears can get the drop on the Errents, its really all over. Without the Errents to bog it down, the Carnivean will be able to have its way with the Vanquisher and while Feora is terrifying in melee, she also is fairly squishy. With a distinct lack of 1 hp foes, Feora’s feat is also somewhat negated.

Game 8: Kaya vs Kreoss
High mobility tactics vs a slow meat grinder. With his feat, Kreoss will force Kaya to take the charge and with a full unit of Cinerators that can screen, Kreoss can keep the Crusader in reserve as a second wave Blitzer.

ROUND 3

Game 9: Sorscha vs Gorten
Dude Spam vs Dude Spam (or as much as we get at 15pts). While there are a lot of fleshie bodies for Gorten to leverage for a game of attrition, Alexia is very vulnerable to getting killed but generally has to play forward to capitalize upon her mechanics. With a turn of auto-hitting, Sorscha should be able to clear out the chaff, drop Alexia, and put a sizable dent into the Forgeguard. With the Juggernaut screening Sorscha from the Gunners, I don’t really see a situation where Gorten can put dudes on Sorscha that doesn’t also expose him to the Juggernaut.

Game 10: Kaelyssa vs Lylyth
Neither side cares really cares about LOS or Cover, but Legion is the better glass cannon faction. Kaelyssa is going to struggle to pin Lylyth down and will die to a charging Carnivean. With the way fury healing works, Lylyth can keep that Carnivean running at 100% until it goes down, using the Shredder as a transfer target.

Game 11: Kreoss vs Lucent
With a distinct lack of low armor, 1 hp chaff to murder, the Reductors are largely just a speed bump that die to droves to the Repenter. With his feat, Kreoss can ensure that whatever is on the receiving end is locked down and with Purification, he can keep Lucent from running any Watcher nonsense.

ROUND 4

Game 12: Lylyth vs Kreoss
This is really a repeat of the Kaya vs Kreoss game. Kreoss has a durable, meat grinder that excels at chewing and eliminating a few, tough models. With his feat to force an engage, I don’t think Lylyth will be able to pull this out as she does best against high defense, low armor targets.

ROUND 5

Game 13: Kreoss vs Gorten
With the inability to shuffle lists around, see the previous summary for this match up.

ROUND 6

Game 14: Gorten vs Sorscha
With the inability to shuffle lists around, see the previous summary for this match up.

So that’s Sorscha to win, Gorten in second and Kreoss in third (not that it matters for the prize, but if we get more interest, we may just start incorporating seeded starts). My initial guess at a glance put Gorten as the winner with both of my other picks not even on the podium, go figure. Anyways, it’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out!

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